The process of anticipating future demand is referred to as forecasting, and it is a crucial capability for a company that wants to remain competitive, keeping costs low. However, forecasting can be a complex and time-consuming process. Increasingly companies turn to external experts to run their forecasts as a service to make the process easier. But how to be sure that your company can benefit from improving supply chain forecasting with help of this kind of service? And how to quickly create an accurate business case estimating potential forecast accuracy gains and affected excess inventory or stock-outs that impact your bottom line?
For many years EyeOn has proven to help businesses in a variety of industries forecast demand for their products or services using advanced statistical models and analytical techniques. Our dedicated and highly professional team, called the Planning Services, has gained extensive experience in making statistical forecasts for our customers not only in an accurate and unbiased way but also per specific business dynamics. The knowledge we gained from these experiences has led to our standardized and rapid approach to checking if your supply chain forecast quality can be improved using our solutions. It includes a multi-dimensional check of your current performance and results and comparing it with the statistical forecast created using EyeOn’s best practices defined for your relevant industry. This helps companies identify improvement opportunities and make informed decisions based on data-driven insights in weeks or even days.
Our experienced team of Planning Services professionals provides both the Forecast Fast Scan and Forecast Assessment. Apart from broadly similar end goals, they have some significant differences that set them apart. Forecast Fast Scan is designed to quickly generate a demand forecast for a part of your portfolio based on historical data using the current planning setup. Our high-end data science platform uses statistical algorithms to identify patterns and trends in the data and uses these to generate a forecast for the future. It utilizes the existing level of aggregation/disaggregation, parameters, cleansing algorithms, and evaluation KPIs, or, in case not available, a best-practice EyeOn approach. The output generates a detailed statistical forecast, which can be used to check the quality of a customer’s current forecasting tools. If you use simple tools (e.g., Excel-based solutions) or want insight into the performance of your existing forecasting software, this Forecast Fast Scan will help you. In just 3-4 days, it will clearly show the benefits of working with more sophisticated systems and algorithms without significant changes in the existing processes.
The Forecast Assessment, on the other hand, is a more in-depth solution that evaluates and improves the setup of existing forecasts. It analyses multiple scenarios using different setups, including simultaneously testing other forecasting and seasonality levels and adjusting parameters such as cleansing thresholds and model scoring timeframe. Our consultants provide recommendations on how to improve the forecast’s accuracy and bias, such as adjusting forecast parameters or using different forecasting methods. Additionally, our advanced statistical algorithms can evaluate forecast value add for enrichments on different levels and give insights into existing cognitive biases within the team. The Forecast Assessment typically takes around 10-12 working days if relevant data can be delivered quickly. It will be beneficial if you have an established forecasting process and tool and would like to enhance it, bringing your performance to the next level.
The EyeOn Forecast Fast Scan, as well as the Forecast Assessment, typically involves the following steps:
Data Collection: EyeOn collects data on your historical sales and demand patterns, master data, and any available enrichment data.
Analysis: EyeOn uses advanced statistical techniques to identify patterns, trends, and specifics in demand data.
Model Development: Based on the analysis, EyeOn develops a forecasting model tailored to the check’s purpose. It can include one or multiple forecasting scenarios, as stated above.
Performance Evaluation: EyeOn evaluates the performance of the forecasting model against historical data and other relevant benchmarks, such as actual performance, industry standards, or best practices. We can use a comprehensive KPI framework if a more detailed Forecast Assessment is needed.
Recommendations: EyeOn provides recommendations for improving the accuracy and reliability of your demand forecasts. Results are shared in a standardized format using your preferred reporting solution: PowerBI or Tableau. We can organize a comprehensive workshop with stakeholders to discuss the human and behavioural aspects of the forecasting process for a detailed Forecast Assessment.
Which solution fits your question best? Please get in touch with our consultants, who are happy to advise you based on your business needs. No matter which service you choose, EyeOn Planning services provides valuable insights to help you make informed decisions by improving the accuracy of your supply chain forecasting, reduce forecast bias, and optimize time investment into forecast preparation. Our experience and proven track record of successful forecasting-related projects guarantee excellent quality of execution and smooth and rapid delivery of business-relevant outcomes.